Monthly Market Commentary - Hobbs Group Advisors

May 2026

Markets Look Past War Risks as Earnings Remain Strong and Broadening Continues

Despite lingering geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, and renewed inflation concerns, equities moved higher in April, supported by a strong start to the Q1 earnings season and resilient economic growth. After approaching correction territory late last month, the S&P 500 rebounded to post seven record closing highs, gaining more than 10% for its strongest monthly […]

April 2026

Valuation Reset Amid Geopolitical Shock. Uncertainty Persists but Opportunities Are Emerging

Amid heightened Iran tensions, growing stress in private credit, and a rotation out of AI-related names, large-cap equities struggled in Q1 2026. The S&P 500 Index declined 4.3%, marking its worst quarter since Q3 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell even further, down 5.8%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index eked out […]

March 2026

Keep Calm and Stay Invested. History Suggests Patience During Geopolitical Uncertainty

Amid heightened scrutiny of AI-related capex, geopolitical tensions, and a hotter-than-expected inflation report late in the month, US large-cap equities came under pressure in February, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 declining 2.3% and 0.8%, respectively. However, market leadership continued to broaden beyond mega-caps, as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (+3.6%) outperformed its […]

February 2026

The Rotation Has Been Underway. The Case for Thoughtful Diversification Grows Stronger

Despite early volatility driven by global bond market stress, tariff-related tensions, renewed inflation concerns, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership, equities finished January higher, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. On the back of strong economic data and earnings, market leadership broadened beyond mega-caps as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (+3.4%) outperformed […]

January 2026

Navigating 2026: Risk-Aware and Disciplined Positioning Beyond Traditional Beta

Despite geopolitical risks, tariff concerns, inflation pressures, a government shutdown, and labor market softness, equities delivered strong gains in 2025. Leadership broadened as international markets led performance alongside mega-cap strength, AI-related optimism, and interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 Index gained roughly 18% for the year, marking its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, while […]

December 2025

Constructive Outlook for Risk Assets Amid a Shifting Market Cycle

Despite early volatility driven by the longest government shutdown on record, hawkish Fed signals, AI scrutiny, and elevated valuations, the S&P 500 Index finished slightly higher (+0.2%) as economic data came in mixed but softened, the Fed’s tone turned more dovish, sentiment improved, and odds of a December interest rate cut increased. US small-caps and […]