Monthly Market Commentary - Hobbs Group Advisors

April 2026

Valuation Reset Amid Geopolitical Shock. Uncertainty Persists but Opportunities Are Emerging

Amid heightened Iran tensions, growing stress in private credit, and a rotation out of AI-related names, large-cap equities struggled in Q1 2026. The S&P 500 Index declined 4.3%, marking its worst quarter since Q3 2022, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index fell even further, down 5.8%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index eked out […]

March 2026

Keep Calm and Stay Invested. History Suggests Patience During Geopolitical Uncertainty

Amid heightened scrutiny of AI-related capex, geopolitical tensions, and a hotter-than-expected inflation report late in the month, US large-cap equities came under pressure in February, with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 declining 2.3% and 0.8%, respectively. However, market leadership continued to broaden beyond mega-caps, as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (+3.6%) outperformed its […]

February 2026

The Rotation Has Been Underway. The Case for Thoughtful Diversification Grows Stronger

Despite early volatility driven by global bond market stress, tariff-related tensions, renewed inflation concerns, and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership, equities finished January higher, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. On the back of strong economic data and earnings, market leadership broadened beyond mega-caps as the S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (+3.4%) outperformed […]

January 2026

Navigating 2026: Risk-Aware and Disciplined Positioning Beyond Traditional Beta

Despite geopolitical risks, tariff concerns, inflation pressures, a government shutdown, and labor market softness, equities delivered strong gains in 2025. Leadership broadened as international markets led performance alongside mega-cap strength, AI-related optimism, and interest rate cuts. The S&P 500 Index gained roughly 18% for the year, marking its third consecutive year of double-digit gains, while […]

December 2025

Constructive Outlook for Risk Assets Amid a Shifting Market Cycle

Despite early volatility driven by the longest government shutdown on record, hawkish Fed signals, AI scrutiny, and elevated valuations, the S&P 500 Index finished slightly higher (+0.2%) as economic data came in mixed but softened, the Fed’s tone turned more dovish, sentiment improved, and odds of a December interest rate cut increased. US small-caps and […]

November 2025

Tame Inflation, Strong Earnings, and a Fed Cutting Cycle. Will Equities Rally into Year-End?

Despite the US government shutdown and hawkish commentary at the October FOMC meeting, equities were largely up for the month amid a strong start to the Q3 earnings season, lower than expected inflation, optimism regarding a US-China trade deal, and additional easing in monetary policy. The rally was centered around mega-cap technology as US growth […]