Soft Landing Probabilities have Increased, but Recession Risks Persist

Major Indices Rise for Fifth Straight Month.

As of July’s end, both the S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq Composite Index posted their fifth consecutive monthly gain. The positive equity performance comes on the back of cooling inflation, better than expected earnings, and increased probabilities of a soft landing. Broadbased emerging market equities (+6.0%) were among the best performers, followed by US smallcaps (+5.6%) and US mid-caps (+4.2%). Bonds were mixed as high yield credits rose 1.1% while 7-10 year US Treasuries fell 0.7%. Commodities produced positive returns as crude oil was up 15.1%, silver increased 8.6%, broad-based commodities gained 6.7%, and gold rose 2.3%.